Where did Michigan recruit in 2016?

Where did Michigan recruit in 2016?


June 3, 2016

 
Florida: Where football is safer than golf.

By my count, Michigan sent out 257 offers in the class of 2016 (LINK). That was a significantly higher number than any I had seen from Michigan in previous years. The high up until then was the 195 offers sent out in 2011 (LINK). Part of that high number was the fact that the 2016 class saw some carryover from Brady Hoke and then a bunch of additional offers from Jim Harbaugh. The biggest reason for the uptick in offers, though, was simply a different recruiting strategy. Hoke sent out fewer offers in the hopes of building strong relationships with those offered; on the flip side, Harbaugh offers just about anyone who he thinks can play ball. It’s a way to get a foot in the door.

Below are the offers by state (number of commits in parentheses).

Florida: 43 (6)
Texas: 34
California: 29 (3)
Georgia: 19 (1)
Michigan: 14 (3)
New Jersey: 13 (6)
North Carolina: 13
Louisiana: 10
Ohio: 9
Virginia: 9
Alabama: 8 (2)
Pennsylvania: 8 (1)
Maryland: 7 (1)
Indiana: 6 (2)
Illinois: 5
Washington, D.C.: 4
Kansas: 3
Arizona: 2
Hawaii: 2
Oregon: 2
Tennessee: 2 (1)
Wisconsin: 2 (1)
British Columbia (Canada): 1
Colorado: 1 (1)
Connecticut: 1
Kentucky: 1
Massachusetts: 1 (1)
Minnesota: 1
Mississippi: 1
Missouri: 1
Oklahoma: 1
South Carolina: 1
South Dakota: 1
Utah: 1
Washington: 1
Alaska: 0
Arkansas: 0
Delaware: 0
Idaho: 0
Iowa: 0
Maine: 0
Montana: 0
Nebraska: 0
Nevada: 0
New Hampshire: 0
New Mexico: 0
New York: 0
North Dakota: 0
Rhode Island: 0
Vermont: 0
West Virginia: 0
Wyoming: 0

CONCLUSIONS

  • Michigan went hard after the traditional football powerhouse states of Florida, Texas, and California. That strategy paid off pretty well with 6 commitments from Florida and 3 from California. With 29 commits total in the 2016 class, those efforts filled up 31% (or almost one-third) of the entire class. Then defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin had some strong connections in Florida after serving as the Florida Gators defensive coordinator, and a lot of Harbaugh’s staff had spent a great deal of time in California at San Diego, Stanford, and with the 49ers, so it made sense to target programs with which they had relationships and recognition. The Wolverines were close to pulling in some Texans, but they ended up whiffing on all 34 offers.
  • The hit rate within New Jersey was impressive. The Wolverines targeted 13 prospects in the Garden State, and nearly half of them responded with a commitment. The East Coast influence is strong in Ann Arbor, but you have to wonder if the Big Ten’s expansion to include Rutgers may be helping send those New Jersey kids to powerhouse programs in the conference, including Michigan.
  • There were some suggestions floating around that the Wolverines were ignoring the in-state talent, but one could argue that the Great Lakes State got more than its fair share of attention. Only four states (Florida, Texas, California, and Georgia) got more offers, and the State of Michigan doesn’t have more talent than the likes of Louisiana, New Jersey, Alabama, etc.
  • Michigan ignored 17 states. Those states are mostly thought to be pretty light on talent, but it’s still surprising that when you’re throwing out 257 offers, you can’t find even one kid within those states who’s worthy of a scholarship offer.
  • It’s strange to see the shift in recruiting focus from what I view as traditional recruiting grounds for Michigan. The Wolverines have pulled in a lot of talent from Ohio over the years, but they only offered 9 players and signed zero. Pennsylvania has given Michigan some great players, but there were 8 offers and just 1 signee. It’s smart to work hard in those powerhouse states mentioned above, but it’s odd not to see Ohio and Pennsylvania more involved in the process.

8 comments

  1. Comments: 1
    Joined: 6/3/2016
    CaptainKirk
    Jun 03, 2016 at 11:37 AM

    NIce job gathering all the data Thunder. It was obvious that Harbaugh wasn’t pursuing the traditional recruiting territories of Ohio and Pennsylvania for 2016 so I’m not surprised those States grid iron prepsters did not get their lion’s share of offers. My guess is that though PA and OH provided fertile recruiting grounds for decades, the past 15 or more years has seen a steady decline in both the quantity and quality of athletes as most are now found in the Southeastern States, TX and CA. Thus, the Ohio and PA aren’t as critical to the recruiting process and likely will not be going forward.

    • Comments: 183
      Joined: 9/3/2015
      suduri xusai
      Jun 03, 2016 at 9:14 PM

      Yup. South, South, South… I won’t be surprised to see more than half of our classes soon filled with southern kids and California kids…..

  2. Comments: 262
    Joined: 8/12/2015
    Painter Smurf
    Jun 03, 2016 at 1:36 PM

    Interesting post. Couple comments…

    Hoke’s recruiting strategy fit his personality and worked for the most part, but it is probably not viable long term. Football is going the way of basketball, where some prospects (especially out of region kids) will not even pick up the phone until a school has offered. With JH going more national, the offer count was bound to go up.

    I am not sure whether PA will ever become a highly-targeted area under Harbaugh, but Ohio is bound to creep back in – Ohio kids just pan out at a high rate at UM. NJ made a lot of sense right out of the gate for him because of Partridge’s familiarity as well as most prospects in that state having weak, natural allegiances.

    What I would love to see in this next class is for JH to pull a few front burner recruits out of Ohio and the power SEC states… the kind of kids that are front-burner targets for Saban, Meyer, Miles, etc. A guy like Nico Collins signing with UM would drive Saban absolutely bananas.

    • Comments: 183
      Joined: 9/3/2015
      suduri xusai
      Jun 03, 2016 at 9:12 PM

      I agree with the need to recruit Ohio more, but we won’t really have a chance there with Meyer going 50-4 in the last 4 years. That’s just unreal if you think about it. When we beat OSU in the field, then we might have a chance. Until then, I just don’t see us grabbing a Ohio kid that Meyer really wants.

  3. Comments: 182
    Joined: 9/15/2015
    ragingbull
    Jun 03, 2016 at 2:27 PM

    isnt hudson from pa?

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jun 03, 2016 at 4:34 PM

      Yep, I had that in the data, but missed it in the commentary. Thanks.

  4. Comments: 1
    pit2047
    Jun 04, 2016 at 3:28 AM

    All I can think of watching that video —-> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZwhNFOn4ik

    As far as the lack of traditional Midwest recruiting in the 2016, I think that has more to do with establish relationships than any long term strategy by Harbaugh. Drevno, Baxter, and Jim were all West Coast guys; Fisch was an NFL guy outside of a two year stint at Miami(YTM); Durkin came from Florida; Jackson was an LSU grad from Florida who has spent most of his career down there outside of his 4 years with the 49ers. Wheatley, Zordich and Mattison were really the only guys with Midwestern ties and Wheatley was coming from Buffalo and Zordich had only spent one year at YSU. As this staff builds more relationships I think our classes will have a bit more MIdwestern flair to them, which can be seen in our 2017 state of Michigan recruiting and our 2018 state of Ohio recruiting.

    • Comments: 3844
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jun 04, 2016 at 2:15 PM

      Ha. Thanks for the video. I hadn’t seen/heard that before.

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